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The Mexican auto industry is about to go on a $10 billion factory building spree, illustrating the nation's rising economic challenge to rivals from the United States to China. Japanese and German auto manufacturers are spearheading the drive, say parts suppliers and researchers who see more auto factories built south of the border than in the United States between now and the end of the decade.

The United States will consume the vast majority of the new cars, but Mexico's domestic market has rebounded from a long slump. BMW AG (BMWG.DE: Quote), Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T: Quote) and Daimler AG's (DAIGn.DE: Quote) Mercedes-Benz are expected to announce at least $2 billion of deals in the next year or two, according to supplier and other industry sources. That's on top of nearly $6 billion in announced plants by Nissan Motor Co (7201.T: Quote), Honda Motor Co (7267.T: Quote), Mazda Motor Corp (7261.T: Quote) and Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE: Quote). U.S. automakers, all of whom have been building cars in Mexico since before World War II, will spend another $1 billion or more to upgrade Mexican plants.

Mexico "is quickly turning into the China of the West," said Joseph Langley, a senior analyst at Michigan-based research firm IHS Automotive, pointing to Mexico's low wages, a strong supply base and a global web of free-trade agreements. Mexican auto exports beyond North America are growing even faster than those within, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. They accounted for nearly 30 percent of the 2.4 million exported last year. Altogether Mexico built 3.0 million cars and trucks, according to Automotive News, compared with 10.4 million in the United States and 2.5 million in Canada. By 2020, Mexico will have the capacity to build one in every four vehicles in North America, up from one in six in 2012, according to IHS.